Cowboys vs. Lions prediction: Can Jared Goff and Co. keep up with Dak Prescott and the potent Dallas offense?
FRISCO, Texas — The official start of the 2025 NFL postseason is still about a month away, but for the Dallas Cowboys (6-5-1) and Detroit Lions (7-5), it’s pedal to the metal right now. With both teams sitting just outside the NFC playoff picture as the eight (Lions) and nine (Cowboys) seeds, they know it’s essentially do or die on “Thursday Night Football.”Even Dallas quarterback Dak Prescott has begun to peek at the playoff standings, something he usually refrains from doing.”I did the other day. It was just more — I wouldn’t say by accident, but I was just watching TV, right? It came up there showing the AFC, so I’m thinking, ‘What’s the NFC look like?’ I went and checked it out,” Prescott said Monday. “And I guess nothing different than what I’ve said, right? It’s about us controlling what we control, winning the games in front of us. I don’t think we’re in a position where we can truly count wins and losses from other teams. I think if we just win and handle our business, we’ll put ourselves in a great spot.”So what does controlling what they can control mean to Prescott? The need to win out with no margin for error.
“I said it three weeks ago, just being honest with you, and nothing’s changed,” Prescott said of Dallas’ season being in a place where it’s win or bust. “As I said then, and we say it now, you can’t even think of it as one game at a time. We just have to do our absolute best every day and take advantage of it. Be good with the results we go out there and put.”Despite being on a three-game winning streak that includes wins over the last two Super Bowl champions — the Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs, the Super Bowl LIX participants — the Cowboys are still walking a tightrope in terms of their playoff chances. The same goes for the Lions, a team that has alternated wins and losses across their last eight games. CBS Sports’ SportsLine model puts both squads at nearly a 50% chance to reach the postseason with a victory Thursday night in Detroit, while the loser’s playoff hopes will be all but cooked.
Here’s everything you need to know to catch the Cowboys-Lions showdown, including key matchups and our prediction:Where to watch Cowboys vs. LionsBet Cowboys vs. Lions and other NFL Week 14 games at DraftKings Sportsbook, where new users get $200 in bonus bets if their first bet of at least $5 wins.Cowboys vs. Lions: Need to knowCowboys’ George Pickens nearly unstoppable on slants
Explosive Dallas wide receiver George Pickens is having a season for the ages in Year 1 as a Cowboy. His 1,142 receiving yards rank second in the league, and with just 39 yards on Thursday, he’ll break Dallas’ all-time record for the most receiving yards in a player’s first season with the Cowboys. Pro Football Hall of Famer Terrell Owens currently holds that mark with 1,180 yards back in 2006.Why has Pickens been so successful playing alongside Prescott and All-Pro wide receiver CeeDee Lamb? For one, he’s been the most elusive player in the NFL after the catch: Pickens’ 19 forced missed tackles are the most in the league, according to Pro Football Focus. He’s also been dominant over the middle, with the second most catches (33) and receiving yards (576) on in-breaking routes in 2025. Only the NFL’s overall receiving yards leader, the Seahawks’ Jaxon Smith-Njigba (1,336), has been better on those routes with 36 catches for 586 yards.”Just certain leverage, just getting open. I’ve kind of beat both of them (inside or outside leverage), so like sometimes I don’t even have the leverage. I still catch it. I feel like a slant is not too much. It’s a short route, so everything is just pretty much me. If he guards me and I make a contestant catch, or I just cook him off the line,” Pickens said Monday. “I got just a quick twitch. Whether he’s inside, I can do a certain move to make him get outside. If he’s outside, I can leave him there. It’s a lot of stuff.”
Early predictions for top 2026 NFL free agents: Potential landing spots for Aaron Rodgers, George Pickens
Cody Benjamin
In Pickens’ mind, there’s nothing a defender can do to slow him down when he wants to get open on a slant. Should a cornerback play tight, press man coverage, he’s more than happy to run a vertical, deep route — a “go ball.” Pickens’ 15.6 yards per reception this season is the sixth-best in the league, and only Smith-Njigba (21) has more catches of 20-plus yards than his 18.In Pickens’ mind, there’s nothing a defender can do to slow him down when he wants to get open on a slant. Should an opposing cornerback play tight, press man coverage, he’s more than happy to run a vertical, deep route aka a “go ball.” Pickens’ 15.6 yards per reception this season is the sixth-best in the league, and only Smith-Njigba (21) has more catches for 20-plus yards than his 18. “It’s kind of inevitable. It’s going to happen regardless. Because I can beat it against two-man, man, three, four. It’s a window thing. … There’s nothing they can do to win,” Pickens said Monday. “I got the go ball. I got the stop route, slant. Now they’re kind of focusing on the slant, and I still got the go ball. There’s a lot of stuff.”The Steelers utilized Pickens as a pure deep threat in his last two seasons there (2023 and 2024) before he was traded to Dallas. Here’s his route heat map from TruMedia, with the brightest yellow areas along the sidelines.
TruMedia
However, as a Cowboy this season, Dallas has added more variety to his route tree, using him much more over the middle of the field while still giving him deep-shot opportunities with Prescott. Pickens said that variance is one of the biggest reasons for his breakout this season.”It’s been great. That’s one of the things that I’m glad you talk about because that’s one of the things that I remember me saying earlier in the year,” Pickens said. “That if you see me with a more versatile route tree, then you can kind of see what I can do.”
TruMedia
What will Amon-Ra St. Brown’s impact be? Detroit may or may not have the services of their No. 1, All-Pro wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown on Thursday night. He suffered a low ankle sprain on Thanksgiving against the Packers that knocked him out of that game and has him officially listed as questionable for Week 14.
His presence — or absence — will be a major factor for the Lions. St. Brown’s 505 career receptions have him just six catches away from breaking Michael Thomas’ record (510) for the most through five seasons in NFL history. Detroit also ranks first in the NFL in yards per play (6.1) across the last five seasons with St. Brown on the field; without him, that figure drops to 25th (5.0).
If he’s not out there, the Lions will be in uncharted territory without both St. Brown and Pro Bowl tight end Sam LaPorta, who is currently on injured reserve with a back injury. Detroit has played just 5% of its offensive snaps since drafting LaPorta in 2023 without both him and St. Brown on the field. Four offensive line starters — All-Pro right tackle Penei Sewell (shoulder), Pro Bowl left tackle Taylor Decker (shoulder/rest), center Graham Glasgow (knee) and left guard Kayode Awosika (foot) — are also questionable.Offensive efficiency 2nd16thYards per play1st25thCan Cowboys’ new-look defense contain Jahmyr Gibbs and Co.?
The Cowboys’ defense transformed from one of the worst in football through the first nine weeks of the season to one of the NFL’s best at stopping the run and rushing the passer — all while becoming a league-average scoring defense. The trade-deadline acquisition of Jets All-Pro defensive tackle Quinnen Williams has been transformative. His 21 quarterback pressures are the third most in the league since he made his Dallas debut in Week 11, and they’re already more than the 19 he had in eight games as a Jet this season.
“Yeah, it’s really everybody. Everybody’s all 11, all together all the time. That’s been the biggest improvement, but when you add a very talented All-Pro player in the middle, you get middle pressure,” Cowboys defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus said Monday. “When you have the threat of middle pressure, that creates a lot of one-on-ones for somebody else. That’s the biggest thing, like for the (defensive tackles) Osa (Odighizuwa) or KC (Kenny Clark) or whoever might be in there. That’s what that (an All-Pro DT in Williams) creates because you’ve got to move people to him. That creates opportunities for somebody else.”W-L3-5-1 (19th)3-0 (T-1st)PPG allowed30.8 (31st)21.7 (16th)Total YPG allowed397.4 (31st)312.3 (14th)Rush YPG allowed143.0 (29th)69.7 (2nd)QB pressures135 (3rd)55 (2nd)QB pressure rate39.8% (9th)41.7% (3rd)Sacks20 (T-17th)8 (T-6th)Takeaways7 (T-23rd)3 (T-18th)* On bye week in Week 10The improvement Dallas has made — from being a bottom-five run defense to the second-best in the NFL (69.7 rushing yards per game allowed) since Week 11 — will be tested by the Lions’ two-headed monster of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery. Since they became a tandem in 2023, Gibbs (36 rushing touchdowns, second most among running backs) and Montgomery (31 rushing touchdowns, sixth most) have become the first running back duo in the Super Bowl era (since 1966) to each run for more than 30 touchdowns in a three-season span.
“Yeah, D-Mo is a real pro, very serious, very intense. He’s a damn good runner, and he’s done a good job for those guys. The 1-2 punch that they have is something that you don’t have in the NFL, and they have it,” Eberflus said. “Gibbs is just one of the best in the league in terms of his burst, in terms of his ability to capture edges in the run game and then in space. When he’s in space, he’s electric. So, we got our hands full with them.”
Cowboys vs. Lions prediction, pick
The Cowboys are the healthier team at this point in the season. Detroit’s banged up offensive line won’t be able to hold up for all 60 minutes against Dallas’ three-headed monster at defensive tackle of All-Pro Quinnen Williams, three-time Pro Bowler Kenny Clark and Osa Odighizuwa. Pick: Cowboys 35, Lions 31 | (Dallas +3, Over 54.5)
Publicado: 2025-12-04 14:50:00
fonte: www.cbssports.com
