Fantasy Football Week 14 Lineup Decisions: Your guide to the toughest starts, sits and flexes
Fantasy Football is all about the matchups. Even though you drafted your team with certain hopes and intentions, your weekly lineup decisions shouldn’t be determined by the order you picked your players in. You need to check who your players play and make sure you’ve got the right guys in — and the wrong guys out. We can take some educated guesses based on coaches film, meaningful data, healthy personnel, defensive schemes, track records, and key details of offenses. The things we know can help us minimize the impact of the things we don’t know. This should lead to better decisions being made. We’ll go through every game and highlight the players who aren’t obvious starts and sits (because you don’t need to be told to sit Elic Ayomanor). You should feel more comfortable starting or sitting players based on the information given, and feeling comfortable with your Fantasy lineup before the games start is the best feeling in the world. All lines from Caesars Sportsbook.
With top cornerback Terrion Arnold on the shelf and a pass rush that couldn’t make Jordan Love nervous on Thanksgiving, the Lions figure to give up a lot of points to the Cowboys. Detroit might try to counter that with its run game, but Dallas’ run defense has been pretty awesome since acquiring Quinnen Williams: 3.3 yards per carry, zero touchdowns, and a skimpy 2.8% explosive rush rate allowed. That should make you nervous about David Montgomery (6.3 carries per game in his past three), but nothing should keep you from starting Jahmyr Gibbs. I would expect a heavy workload for Jared Goff, which would normally be great, but he figures to be without Amon-Ra St. Brown. That still shouldn’t keep him from finding around 24 Fantasy points, something 10 of 12 passers have done against Dallas this season, including 30-burgers to Jalen Hurts and Patrick Mahomes in their past two games. The good news is that Isaac TeSlaa’s route participation was already on the rise even without St. Brown’s Week 13 injury; his 97% number in Week 13 was a career high. The bad news is that his added routes didn’t result in a high target rate — he’s been under 7% in each of his past three, including Thanksgiving day when he ran clear-out routes on plenty of snaps. That’s not good. Desperation due to injuries will push him into a larger role, but Tom Kennedy figures to also get more opportunities as the primary slot replacement for St. Brown. Kennedy seemed to be an easy short-area target that Goff wasn’t shy to lean into last week: Kennedy didn’t run as much as one route before Week 13, and his route rate was lower than TeSlaa’s, yet he saw twice as many targets and proved he could run past defenders to earn a target. I kind of like Kennedy in deeper PPR leagues, and I like TeSlaa in all formats, but only in reasonable instances over any wideout that doesn’t carry much upside and has a tougher matchup. Neither should be started with high expectations. MUST STARTS: Jahmyr Gibbs, Dak Prescott, George Pickens, CeeDee Lamb STARTS: Jared Goff, Jameson Williams, Javonte Williams, Jake Ferguson (borderline TE)
FLEX: Isaac TeSlaa and Tom Kennedy (both in sort-of desperation situations) SITS: David Montgomery (at best a non-PPR flex), Ross Dwelley, Malik Davis, Ryan Flournoy, Cowboys DST, Lions DST
MUST-STARTS: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Bijan Robinson STARTS: Kenneth Walker III, Kyle Pitts, Seahawks DST FLEX: Zach Charbonnet, Tyler Allgeier (non-PPR) SITS: Sam Darnold, Kirk Cousins, Darnell Mooney (desperation WR), Cooper Kupp, Rashid Shaheed, A.J. Barner, Falcons DST
Lamar Jackson had success against the Steelers in his past two meetings, but he hasn’t played like the same guy. Jackson’s completion rate has gone off the rails (under 59% in four straight), and his catchable pass rate has gone under 80% in each of his past two games. The combined lack of accuracy, along with his lack of rushing dominance, has made him a Fantasy liability. Is it a silver lining that he had one touchdown called back by a penalty and another fumbled out of the end zone by Isaiah Likely last week? Or is it a real problem that Jackson has officially not thrown a touchdown since Week 10? The Steelers have long played aggressive defense against Jackson and figure to do the same thing this week with a lot of man-to-man coverage and a lot of blitzing. Since his return from injury in Week 9, Jackson has completed 42.5% of his passes against man-to-man for 6.8 yards per attempt with an egregious 35% off-target throw rate; the completion and yardage rates get even worse when he’s pressured. This is a tough spot to trust Jackson, especially since there’s a real chance the Ravens can run their way to victory, given the state of the Steelers run defense, which might have a sub-100 percent Patrick Queen at linebacker and definitely won’t have Derrick Harmon on the D-line.
MUST STARTS: Derrick Henry STARTS: Jaylen Warren (borderline No. 2/3 PPR RB), Ravens DST, Steelers DST FLEX: Kenneth Gainwell (low-end flex), DK Metcalf (low-end flex) SITS: Lamar Jackson (high-end No. 2 QB), Aaron Rodgers, Kenneth Gainwell (desperation RB), Calvin Austin III, Adam Thielen, Pat Freiermuth, Darnell Washington, Roman Wilson,
In the Bills’ blowout wins this season, Khalil Shakir’s route participation rate has never been higher than 71.4% and as low as the 51.9% rate last week. That doesn’t preclude him from being bad for Fantasy — he had a 6-88-1 stat line Week 8 at Carolina — but three of his four single-digit PPR point games did come in Bills blowout wins. This week doesn’t feel like a blowout win for Buffalo, not after how the Bengals came out last Thursday and throttled the Ravens. But it does feel like a really good matchup for James Cook and thus a lesser need for Josh Allen to throw all over the place. It is worth noting that Shakir’s metrics are much better against zone coverage than man-to-man, and the Bengals have been playing more man-to-man coverage over their past three games. Shakir remains flex-worthy, especially in PPR, but that’s it. MUST STARTS: Josh Allen, James Cook, Ja’Marr Chase, Chase Brown STARTS: Joe Burrow FLEX: Khalil Shakir SITS: Andrei Iosivas (desperation WR), Mike Gesicki (desperation TE), Keon Coleman, Dawson Knox, Ty Johnson, Samaje Perine, Ray Davis, Bills DST, Bengals DST
STARTS: Quinshon Judkins, Harold Fannin (low-end starting TE), Browns DST (just this week) SITS: Cam Ward, Shedeur Sanders, Jerry Jeudy, Tyjae Spears (desperation PPR RB), Tony Pollard, Dylan Sampson, Jerome Ford, Gunnar Helm, Chimere Dike, Cedric Tillman, Elic Ayomanor, Chig Okonkwo, Isaiah Bond, Titans DST
The numbers say Jacksonville’s pass defense is improving — three passing touchdowns allowed in their past three games and two touchdowns specifically to wide receivers in their past five. Some of that is a function of the weak offenses they’ve played, some of it can be attributed to an emerging pass rush that’s scored 12 sacks in their past three games, even without blitzing a ton. Indianapolis should aim to manage those pass rush issues, given its O-line and Daniel Jones’ recent efforts to get the ball out faster over his past two games. If Jones could connect several times with Alec Pierce on downfield throws against Houston, then he should be able to do the same against Jacksonville, especially since Houston was as good as Jacksonville at defending deep throws going into last week. Pierce’s upside is what makes him a must-start in Fantasy, while Jones is more of a low-end starter because he should be able to match or slightly exceed the 20 Fantasy points he’s had in his past two games against tougher matchups.
Jakobi Meyers has led the Jaguars in target per route run rate versus man coverage since joining the team four games ago. Before his arrival, that title belonged to Parker Washington. (Brian Thomas Jr. narrowly led with a 22.5% target per route run rate versus zone coverage.) If the Colts stick with playing a good dose of man-to-man coverage like they did last week, even after Sauce Gardner’s injury, then Meyers should have a shot at a good game. Indy began the year playing a good amount of zone coverage, but altered course midseason and then traded for Gardner. Additionally, defensive boss Lou Anarumo leaned on a sizable amount of man-to-man coverage in two career meetings against Trevor Lawrence, beating him both times. This should encourage you to trust Meyers as at least a flex, especially if Parker Washington doesn’t play. MUST STARTS: Jonathan Taylor STARTS: Daniel Jones (borderline No. 1/2 QB), Travis Etienne, Alec Pierce, Michael Pittman (low-end No. 2 PPR WR), Tyler Warren, Brenton Strange, Jaguars DST FLEX: Jakobi Meyers, Brian Thomas Jr. (low-end flex) SITS: Trevor Lawrence (high-end No. 2 QB), Josh Downs (desperation PPR WR), Bhayshul Tuten, Colts DST
In six games with J.J. McCarthy, Justin Jefferson has topped 15 PPR points once (Week 9) and 12 PPR points twice (Week 1), thanks to touchdowns he’s caught. McCarthy is clearly problematic, but at least he knows to feed Jefferson the ball, given the receiver’s 26.2% target per route run rate with McCarthy. Since Dan Quinn took over the playcalling duties for the Commanders defense, he’s dialed up a lot of zone coverage and thus given up fewer deep completions. Because it looks like left tackle Christian Darrisaw is going to play, I’m willing to overlook other Vikings O-line deficiencies in what is otherwise a great matchup for them. If McCarthy focuses on making quick and easy decisions, then at least Jefferson should get good volume and be usable as a No. 2 receiver (just not a No. 1). Why start Chris Rodriguez if he’s a TD-or-bust running back? Simple: The Vikings have allowed at least one rushing touchdown to a running back in six straight games (six RBs and seven touchdowns total). Of the six RBs who scored, four had at least 12 carries; Rodriguez has 11 carries in three of his past four and has seemingly earned a role as the team’s lead running-downs back. Start him as a touchdown-based flex or low-end RB, making him better in non-PPR than PPR formats. STARTS: Terry McLaurin, Justin Jefferson, Deebo Samuel, Jordan Mason, Zach Ertz (low-end PPR TE)
FLEX: Chris Rodriguez SITS: Marcus Mariota, J.J. McCarthy, Jordan Addison, T.J. Hockenson, Jeremy McNichols, Zavier Scott, Jacory Croskey-Merritt, Vikings DST, Commanders DST
Working with Tyrod Taylor in Week 12, Adonai Mitchell tied John Metchie III with seven targets to lead the Jets, but Mitchell didn’t score, didn’t have his timing down with Taylor, couldn’t get his feet in bounds on a deep catch, and Taylor himself was off-target on a couple of passes. They mostly fixed it in Week 13, putting Mitchell on the Fantasy radar against an evolving Dolphins defense that’s rapidly improved against the run and is slowly improving against the pass. Their metrics against deep passes to WRs are awesome because they’ve barely been tested (50 targets of 15-plus air yards are the second-fewest any team has seen this year; they’ve allowed six scores on deep throws, though, bottom-10 in the league). Mitchell has eight targets of 15-plus air yards in his past two with Taylor. I’d be shocked if the Jets didn’t try more of them, especially if they don’t have much success stopping the Dolphins run game and are forced to throw. Plus, it’s not like Mitchell doesn’t get short targets either, catching 8 of 11 throws inside of 15 air yards in his past two games for 76 yards. It makes Mitchell a flex worth rolling the dice on. MUST-STARTS: De’Von Achane, Breece Hall STARTS: Jaylen Waddle, Dolphins DST FLEX: Adonai Mitchell SITS: Tyrod Taylor, Tua Tagovailoa, John Metchie III (desperation WR), Darren Waller (desperation TE), Mason Taylor, Malik Washington, Ollie Gordon, Isaiah Davis, Jets DST
MUST-STARTS: Bucky Irving STARTS: Baker Mayfield (borderline No. 1/2 QB), Chris Olave, Emeka Egbuka, Juwan Johnson, Buccaneers DST FLEX: Chris Godwin (PPR) SITS: Tyler Shough, Devin Neal (desperation RB), Devaughn Vele (desperation PPR WR), Cade Otton, Tez Johnson, Rachaad White, Sean Tucker, Taysom Hill, Saints DST
We’re two games into the R.J. Harvey era in Denver, and he’s delivered two touchdowns, one run of eight-plus yards, zero runs of 12-plus yards, and nine runs of one or fewer yards. Thank goodness for the touchdowns … and for the receiving skills (seven targets, six catches, 47 yards). Harvey had fewer hesitations in his runs last week than the week before, but dealt with a lot of bad blocking from his offensive line and still didn’t win on outside runs. Despite it, I doubt Harvey is losing his grip on his share of the rushing workload. In Las Vegas’ past two games against the Chargers and Browns, it has given up eight rushes of eight-plus yards (three went 20-plus yards) and four total touchdowns (three rushing) to RBs. Even if the Raiders give the Broncos a fight this week, there should be ample opportunities for Harvey to accumulate numbers, just maybe not with a lot of efficiency.
MUST STARTS: Brock Bowers STARTS: R.J. Harvey, Ashton Jeanty, Courtland Sutton, Broncos DST FLEX: Troy Franklin SITS: Bo Nix (high-end No. 2 QB), Geno Smith, Evan Engram (desperation PPR TE), Pat Bryant, Tre Tucker, Tyler Lockett, Jaleel McLaughlin, Tyler Badie, Raheem Mostert, Raiders DST
MUST-STARTS: Matthew Stafford, Puka Nacua, Davante Adams, Trey McBride, Kyren Williams STARTS: Jacoby Brissett, Michael Wilson, Greg Dortch (low-end No. 2 PPR WR, flex in non-PPR), Zonovan Knight (low-end No. 2 RB), Rams DST SITS: Michael Carter (desperation PPR RB), Blake Corum (desperation RB), Colby Parkinson, Xavier Smith, Terrance Ferguson, Cardinals DST
All but one of Jordan Love’s gorgeous deep-ball completions last week came when he was not pressured in the pocket. That’s always been the name of the game with him: If a defense can’t pressure him, they won’t be able to stop him. This will be Chicago’s biggest problem because, on the season, they’re second-worst in pass rush pressure rate (29.5%) and they’re eighth-lowest in sacks, including just two sacks in their past three games. Their lack of pass rush should open the door for Love to throw freely and deeply, creating opportunities for his receivers against a defense that does play a lot of man-to-man coverage in the second half of close games. I don’t think we’ve seen the last of the Packers receivers having good numbers; Watson has a huge 33.3% target per route run rate against man-to-man coverage in the Packers’ past four games (since Tucker Kraft got hurt). He’s my favorite receiver of the four, but Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks should also see some looks. The Bears’ run game has become a staple of their winning recipe, but this is a tough matchup. In their past five games, excluding garbage time, the Packers have allowed 3.9 yards per carry and a 7.9% explosive rush rate. That’s good, not dominant, but it’s impressive that that’s what they’ve let up considering they’ve seen 28-plus RB rush attempts in four of those five games. That’s a lot of running. The Bears will stick with their ground game as long as possible to control the clock and take pressure off of Caleb Williams, but if their defense can’t do what it did last week, that plan will go out the window and Williams will have to play Superman against a Packers defense that brings a lot of pass rush pressure every week without having to blitz. That’s problematic for Williams, who is among the league’s least efficient passers when pressured, complete with a 37.2% completion rate, 4.6 yards per attempt, and a poor 1.8% TD rate. MUST-STARTS: Josh Jacobs STARTS: Jordan Love, D’Andre Swift, Kyle Monangai (low-end No. 2 RB), Christian Watson (low-end No. 2 WR), Packers DST (low-end DST) FLEX: Rome Odunze SITS: Caleb Williams (high-end No. 2 QB), Dontayvion Wicks and Romeo Doubs (both desperation WRs), DJ Moore, Colston Loveland, Luther Burden III, Cole Kmet, Luke Musgrave, Emanuel Wilson, Bears DST
After throttling Josh Allen and doing mostly fine against Daniel Jones, the Texans should feel confident in their chances. Houston did well against Mahomes through the air in two games last season, holding him to no more than 260 yards and only one passing touchdown in each meeting; a rushing TD saved his stat line last December. Lately, the Texans have had a mean streak up front, blitzing more recently in competitive games. That’s been affecting quarterbacks; only three quarterbacks have more than 21 Fantasy points against them all year, and none have more than 23.9. Mahomes hasn’t been great versus pressure in years, but the make-up of his offense should help him since those pesky Texans outside corners might not venture inside the numbers to deal with Rashee Rice of Travis Kelce, and that’s who he’s leaned on since Rice’s return from suspension. Mahomes is also a candidate to scramble when pressured, just as he did in his games against the Texans last year. All of the Chiefs studs are Fantasy worthy, but this isn’t a great matchup for Kareem Hunt (the Texans just did a nice job against Jonathan Taylor last week) or Xavier Worthy (he’ll see those cornerbacks a lot and hasn’t delivered a good stat line in nearly two months). MUST-STARTS: Patrick Mahomes, Rashee Rice, Nico Collins, Travis Kelce STARTS: Dalton Schultz, Texans DST (borderline DST) FLEX: Jayden Higgins, Kareem Hunt SITS: C.J. Stroud, Xavier Worthy, Woody Marks, Marquise Brown, Christian Kirk, Nick Chubb, Isiah Pacheco, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Chiefs DST
A Chargers win and a long touchdown run by Kimani Vidal covered up what was otherwise a troubling week. Was the Chargers offensive line better coming out of the bye? Sort of — they weren’t great blocking up runs (even the long Vidal touchdown had some mistakes) and they wore down against the pass rush as the game went on. Going from the Raiders front to the Eagles front is a big step-up in class, especially if the Eagles get their act together versus the run after an embarrassing effort last week versus the Bears. We’ve seen bad play from the Chargers O-line before and it’s led to weak stats from most everyone involved. As up-and-down as Philly has been defensively, they deserve the benefit of the doubt in this matchup. It could mean more weak numbers from many Chargers players. MUST-STARTS: Patrick Mahomes, Rashee Rice, Nico Collins, Travis Kelce STARTS: Dalton Schultz, Texans DST (borderline DST) FLEX: Jayden Higgins, Kareem Hunt SITS: C.J. Stroud, Xavier Worthy, Woody Marks, Marquise Brown, Christian Kirk, Nick Chubb, Isiah Pacheco, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Chiefs DST
Publicado: 2025-12-04 02:07:00
fonte: www.cbssports.com
